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August 31, 2007 > Sports > Forget about predictions; let’s focus on how much we really know

Forget about predictions; let’s focus on how much we really know

By Stephen Whitfield | Thresher Editorial Staff

Outside of cockroaches and Dick Vitale, there is nothing more utterly out there than a preseason football prediction. Think about it.

A football team’s success has as much to do with blind luck as any other factor, and with only 12 games on the schedule, everything is magnified. If Jarett Dillard fails to make that spectacular catch on

fourth-and-forever against East Carolina, the Owls go 6-6, there’s no bowl berth and no one is talking about the renaissance of

Rice football.

On the other hand, given Rice’s lackluster performance the last five years, who on earth expected the team to be in a position for a bowl berth in the first place? That’s how uncertain these things are.

So the question we should be asking, then, heading into this season is not, “What can we expect?” but rather, “What do we know?” This much I know for sure: For the first time in three years, the Owls have a nonconference schedule that isn’t totally crippling, and we could easily start the season 2-0. Before you dismiss that, remember that we’ve only had two 2-0 starts in the past 25 years.

Rice should beat Nicholls State University in its season opener tomorrow. Heck, we had better win tomorrow. It would be a stinging indictment of the direction of the team if we didn’t win tomorrow. If the Owls aren’t 1-0 on Sunday, then I will quit the Thresher and move to Siberia (actually, I will do no such thing). That’s pretty much the only thing anybody can predict with any kind of certainty.

Regardless of the excitement surrounding the football team coming off of last year, the consensus around the country is that the Owls are not going to be that good this year. Despite naming Dillard Preseason Offensive Player of the Year, the coaches of Conference USA didn’t even pick Rice to finish in the top three of the West Division. This was in spite of the fact that the Owls came within one

point — one point — of hosting the C-USA title game last year. In its preseason rankings of Division I-A college football teams, Sports Illustrated ranked Rice 105th out of 118 teams.

Are we going to be that bad? Of course not. On the other hand, I would not be surprised if the team failed to repeat its stunning success from last year. The offense is virtually the same as last year, with the major exception of running back Quinton Smith, who is second on Rice’s all-time rushing list and last year posted the fourth 1,000-yard season in school history. We can only hope that Dillard, the all-everything wideout who should have won the Biletnikoff last year, will have another amazing season. But who are we kidding? He had 60 more catches and over 1,000 more yards than any receiver still on the roster. In short, Dillard was the Owls receiving attack in 2006, and until another threat emerges, any defensive coordinator who doesn’t double-cover him at all times is crazy. If another threat emerges, this offense could be pretty fun to watch in 2007. If not, it could be pretty frustrating.

The defense is even more of a crapshoot. Remember all those exciting, high-scoring affairs from a year ago? Well, a lot of that had to do with the fact that our defense was not so great at stopping teams. In 2006, Rice ranked dead last in C-USA in total defense and next-to-last in points allowed. Now, losing to Florida State and Texas by a combined score of 107-14 certainly will not help that stat, but even during conference play the opposing teams moved the ball with ease against the Owls. This is the side of the ball where new head coach David Bailiff will make his mark. With offensive coordinator Tom Herman essentially keeping the same spread offense from a year ago, the only significant change in terms of strategy is the installation of the 4-2-5 defense, a slight shift from the 3-3-5 “stack” defense we ran in 2006. Hopefully, everyone takes well to this formation change, but somehow I get the feeling that this alone will not be enough to start a radical change in the defense’s performance. The personnel is virtually the same from last year, so by default someone will have to improve dramatically for Rice to have a solid season defensively. Junior linebacker Brian Raines should put up monster numbers again this year, but he’s only one guy. If the Owls do not get production from other areas, whether it’s the front four or the secondary, expect many more high-scoring affairs in 2007.

So, what am I saying here? I’m saying that, like most other football teams, the 2007 season is wide open for the Owls. We could finish 8-4 or 4-8 and I would not be surprised either way. I’m just going to tune out Dickie V, sit back, and enjoy the show.

— Stephen Whitfield is a Sid Richardson college senior and managing editor.

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